Chinese Aging Population | UPSC

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IASbhai Daily Editorial Hunt | 11th Sep 2020

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Dear Aspirants
IASbhai Editorial Hunt is an initiative to dilute major Editorials of leading Newspapers in India which are most relevant to UPSC preparation –‘THE HINDU, LIVEMINT , INDIAN EXPRESS’ and help millions of readers who find difficulty in answer writing and making notes everyday. Here we choose two editorials on daily basis and analyse them with respect to UPSC MAINS 2020.

EDITORIAL HUNT #132 :“Chinese Aging Population | UPSC

Chinese Aging Population | UPSC

Yogesh Gupta

Yogesh Gupta is a former Ambassador

      HEADLINES:

The great greying of China

      CENTRAL THEME:

There is evidence that the country’s aging population will incrementally impede its economic growth

SYLLABUS COVERED: GS 1 : Concept of Population : Human Geography

      MAINS QUESTION:

Chinese demographic dividend has paid off worse after one child one policy. Discuss -(GS 1)

      LEARNING: 

  • Chinese one child policy
  • Implications
  • Way Forward

      INTRODUCTION: 

  • ONE CHILD POLICY : China’s one child policy (OCP) was conceived in 1979 to seek popular support for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after Mao’s disastrous ‘Great Leap Forward’ and ‘Cultural Revolution’ .
  • GAIN PER CAPITA :  If the party (CCP) did not produce significant gains in per capita income, it would lose what little legitimacy it had retained.

      BODY: 

POLICY FALLOUT

  • FALLING BIRTH RATES : The results of the one child policy have been disastrous. Average birth rate in China has fallen to 1.6 births per woman (National Bureau of Statistics of China) in 2017.
  • POPULATION REPLACEMENT RATE : It was at 2.1 , Where fewer children were born and of them, fewer were females (given China’s preference for boys like in some other countries).

AGING POPULATION : Proportion of China’s population aged above 65 years would increase from 10% in 2010 to 32.6% in 2050 (corresponding figures for India are 5.6% and 14.2% and the U.S. 14.6% and 23.2%).

  • REDUCED LABOUR FORCE : Its labour force (ages 20-64) will reduce from about a billion in 2017 to 787 million by 2050.
  • STABILISING EFFECT : If China can stabilise its fertility rate at 1.2, its population will fall to 1.07 billion in 2050 and 480 million by 2100.

THE IMPLICATIONS

  • EXPENDITURE : China will need huge expenditures on health, social welfare and pensions; its savings rate will decline; a fall in the number of young people will lead to a decline in manufacturing, exports, and also mean lower revenues for government.
  • PER CAPITA EFFECT : With its annual per capita income at $10,000, increasing population of older people and slowing economic growth rates.
  • ARMED FORCES : China’s armed forces are already struggling as many one child policy children are often misfit for fighting in tougher conditions.
  • HUMAN RESOURCES : A smaller population reduces intellectual exchanges among diverse human groups, reducing chances of the emergence of great innovators.
  • TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY : Developed countries have reduced the impact of declining population by raising the total factor productivity (TFP) growth (ratio of output versus cost of inputs per hourly basis).

Three factors are considered critical for increasing the TFP: market reforms, improvement of governance and scaling of human skills in manufacturing and services.

      IASbhai Windup: 

ABSOLUTE CONTROL

  • GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE : China has never ranked very high in governance indicators . EX : 77th in the annual Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency International (2017).
  • CURBING DISSENTS : Instead of giving representation to new interest groups such as industrialists, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) etc CCP has been establishing absolute control over Chinese society.
  • AGGRESSIVE POLICY MAKING : Also, unlike the past, China will face a hostile external environment in the coming years as a reaction to unfair and aggressive policies.

China’s economic growth will stutter and decline as the impact of aging gets more pronounced in the coming years.

       SOURCES:   THE HINDU EDITORIAL HUNT | Chinese Aging Population | UPSC

 

TRENDING NOW : Important The Hindu Editorials 

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