World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 | UPSC

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World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 | UPSC

World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 | UPSC

      HEADLINES:

World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 : India to lead global energy demand over next decade.

      WHY IN NEWS:

The annual edition is here ! The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more.

SYLLABUS COVERED: GS 3: Report

      LEARNING: 

For PRELIMS IEA is an important issue . Various reports of IEA have already jumped in the Prelims exam . Go through key points and note down the comparison .

For MAINS look at the estimates , approximations , methodology and the significance of this report . Let us dive in !

      ISSUE: 

Pandemic effect : Energy system shows expected falls in 2020 of 5% in global energy demand, 7% in energy-related CO2 emissions and 18% in energy investment.

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK (WEO) 2020

OVERVIEW

  • The World Energy Outlook is the IEA’s flagship publication, provides a comprehensive view of the global energy systems.

The report targets key uncertainties faced by energy sector in relation to the duration of the pandemic and its implications.

  • The Outlook is firmly focused on the next ten years.
  • The report explores the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the energy sector .
  • It also suggests the near-term actions that could accelerate clean energy transitions.

TITLE

World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020

PUBLISHED BY

International Energy Agency (IEA), #France.

THEME

There are two key themes in this World Energy Outlook 2020 (Outlook):

  • The impact of Covid-19 on the energy sector
  • The prospects for accelerated energy transitions.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THEME

  • These themes are interlinked and subject to major near-term uncertainties.

This in particular relating to the duration and severity of the pandemic and its economic implications.

  • It explores the extent to which energy and sustainability are built into recovery strategies.

REPORT ANALYSIS

  • The Covid-19 pandemic has caused more disruption to the energy sector than any other event in recent history.
  • This report explores different pathways out of the Covid-19 crisis, with a particular focus on a pivotal next ten years to 2030.

ESTIMATED FALL

  • ENERGY : Global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%.
  • FUEL : The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables.
  • GAS : The reduction in natural gas demand is around 3%, while global electricity demand looks set to be down by a relatively modest 2% for the year.
  • CARBON DIOXIDE  : The 2.4 gigatonnes (Gt) decline takes annual CO2 emissions back to where they were a decade ago.
  • METHANE : A similar fall is in 2020 with emissions of methane – a powerful greenhouse gas despite lower oil and gas output.

UNCERTAINTY AHEAD

Uncertainty over the duration of the pandemic, its impacts, and the policy responses open up a wide range of possible energy futures.

  • THE STATED POLICIES SCENARIO (STEPS) : In which Covid-19 is gradually brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crisis levels the same year.
  • THE DELAYED RECOVERY SCENARIO (DRS) : It is designed with the same policy assumptions as in the STEPS, but a prolonged pandemic causes lasting damage to economic prospects.

The global economy returns to its pre-crisis size only in 2023, with the lowest rate of energy demand growth since the 1930s.

  • THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO (SDS) : A surge in clean energy policies and investment puts the energy system on track with sustainable measure ; Paris Agreement, energy access and air quality goals.
  • THE NEW NET ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050 CASE (NZE2050) : It extends the SDS analysis.A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by midcentury.

All of these are achieved in the SDS, putting global emissions on track for net zero by 2070.

World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 UPSC

CREDIT : IEA 

THE SHADOW OF THE PANDEMIC

  • Global energy demand rebounds to its pre-crisis level in early 2023 in the STEPS.
  • But, this is delayed until 2025 in the event of a prolonged pandemic and deeper slump, as in the DRS.

Reversing several years of progress,  the number of people without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa is set to rise in 2020.
 

SOLAR : NEW KING OF ELECTRICITY

  • Renewables grow rapidly in all the scenarios, with solar at the centre of this new constellation of electricity generation technologies.

Supportive policies and maturing technologies are enabling very cheap access to capital in leading markets.

  • Electricity grids could prove to be the weak link in the transformation of the power sector.
  • There will be implications for the reliability and security of electricity supply.

COAL WILL BE PHASED OUT

  • Coal demand does not return to pre-crisis levels in the STEPS and its share in the 2040 .
  • The energy mix falls below 20% for the first time since the Industrial Revolution.
  • Coal phase-out policies, the rise of renewables and competition from natural gas lead to less consumption.

The retirement of 275 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity is expected worldwide by 2025.

DECLINE OF OIL BY 2030

The era of growth in global oil demand comes to an end within ten years.

  • The shape of the economic recovery is a key uncertainty.
  • In the absence of a larger shift in policies, it is still too early to foresee a rapid decline in oil demand.

World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 IASbhai

CREDIT : IEA 

LONG-TERM POLICY FOR NATURAL GAS

Natural gas fares better than other fossil fuels, but different policy contexts produce strong variations.

  • Greater transparency on methane emissions seems to be on the way, with implications for the environmental credentials of different sources of gas.
  • Lower prices and downward revisions to demand, have cut around one-quarter off the value of future oil and gas production.

GLOBAL EMISSIONS

  • Global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

The world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery.

  • A step-change in clean energy investment, IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan, offers a way to boost economic recovery, create jobs and reduce emissions.

AIR QUALITY

  • Cities see major improvements in air quality by 2030 in the SDS.
  • Without the disruptions to economic activity or people’s lives that cleared the air in 2020.
World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020
CREDIT : IEA 

      IASbhai WINDUP: 

  • The power sector takes the lead, but a wide range of strategies and technologies are required to tackle emissions across all parts of the energy sector.

Reaching net zero globally by 2050, would demand a set of dramatic additional actions over the next ten years.

  • At a moment when Covid-19 has created extraordinary uncertainty.
  • Governments have unique capacities to act and to guide the actions of others.

To reach net-zero emissions, governments, energy companies, investors and citizens all need to be on board – and will all have unprecedented contributions to make.

     SOURCES:THE HINDU & PIB | World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020 | UPSC

 

DISCOVER MORE : REPORTS

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